STEVEN J. MANNING
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December 1, 2025

Good morning.

We promised “no homework” for the holidays.

Oh well… I [Manning] cannot help myself but “lay a bunch of this stuff on you,” likely to send some to do some cool reading. At least I hope so…

THE WORLD WORKS AROUND GIANTS. WHEN GIANTS COLLIDE, THE WORLD FRACTURES. 

Think: the Global Authoritarian Surge vs. Democratic Stability. Anybody losing sleep over authoritarian powers rising? Democracies fracturing? The world order compresses dangerously? Think China, Russia, Iran, North Korea.

All those define the character, stability, and trajectory of global governance. Freedom of movement, speech, commerce, capital, and the security architecture of half the planet.

Special mention to China. The stability of the global economy—and the risk of a war with true global consequences—rests on the US and China axis.

There is no such thing as a “regional conflict” when superpowers are in the room.

Regional Conflicts Are Re-drawing the Global Order. Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, Red Sea, Iran’s proxy networks, African destabilization—now carry global repercussions because major powers are invested in every theater.

Pondering that the most relevant social trends in the world today are reshaping society faster than institutions can adapt.

Societies are splintering along ideological, cultural, and generational lines at unprecedented speed. That tsunami erodes trust, paralyzes governance, and destabilizes economies. All that creates hysteria-inducing incoherence.

Remember when there were absolute “truths?” When realities seldom blurred? When perception was just a qualitative thing, not reality? Oh well. You can find all that if you have a massive telescope for a rear-view mirror. Human behavior, relationships, commerce, and decision-making are shaped primarily inside digital ecosystems—and increasingly by AI. Alas, most of us become blindfolded.

The world is renegotiating the terms of being a productive human.

Are you redefining what work means, what success costs, and how your identity is constructed?
Yes, you are! As we all do that, we are reshaping labor markets, education, leadership models, and social contracts.

Finally, the three most impactful technology and science drivers that will define prosperity, power, and security.

Artificial Intelligence (General Intelligence, Autonomous Systems & Predictive Models) is rewriting productivity, warfare, medicine, governance, education, and the global economy—at a pace institutions cannot match.

Biotechnology & Synthetic Biology  will control agriculture, health spans, disease eradication, food security, and bio-defense. We are no longer treating biology—we are programming it.

Quantum Technologies (Computing, Sensing, Encryption) will redefine national security, financial systems, logistics, materials science, and the entire cyber domain. Quantum is the first technology that can obsolete everything we currently trust.