“Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water…” Great line associated with Steven Spielberg’s famous movie, JAWS.
Just when we think it is OK to go to sleep with the belief that the world will have changed for the better by the time we wake, the world, just like Spielberg’s mythical, menacing Jaws (“Bruce”), rears its ugly and scary head.
The world remains at war…
Russia-Ukraine
Permit us to brag some…
In the very first MONDAY INFLUENCER®, we predicted that this immensely bloody war, likely 2,000 young men die daily, will be over within three months of Trumps’ inauguration.
A particularly obscene war, absolutely fought for treasure—up to 40% of the immense mineral resources of Ukraine are in the territories already occupied by Russia—and Putin’s nationalism and imperial restorationism insanity.
My calculus was simple. Wars are fought on money. Russia’s “money” comes principally from natural gas exports to Germany. Trump threatens Germany with immense tariffs unless they buy natural gas from us. By the way, that will destroy some 10% of the GDP of Canada and Mexico… Think German cars assembled there. It would take Trump three months to turn on the spigot. After minimum resistance from chancellor Scholz, Germany, Mexico and [ultimately] Canada cave.
Well, I was wrong. It will take four months from Trump’s inauguration.
Now, a partial inventory of winners and losers…
First are the so many people who perished. The immense loss of life.
Ukraine will never recover the Russian occupied territories.
Not a loser in entirety is Russia. It will just have to make do with the land they stole and the incredibly valuable minerals that come with that earth. While drowning in unsold natural gas.
Most scared are the Baltic states. Just a short hop for the Russians.
To all my friends who scream about NATO Article 5, nobody will send troops to defend Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia.
Winners. The US will recover the $350 Billion largely squandered “aid” over short years, from mining rights of all sorts of minerals, particularly rare earth elements.
Ukraine is a winner because it will have the mighty US to protect its mineral interest against Russia. Russia will never engage in a war with the US in Ukraine. Or anywhere else, for that matter.
Zelenskyy and his cronies who likely remain the most corrupt band of “leaders” in European history. Also the wealthiest. Or so it is asserted in decades by all of Europe.
President Trump: can we send Elon Musk there to recover the many billions Zelenskyy and his buddies took home {no Hunter Biden sighting, by the way} with the cost of so many lives? I do not know that to a certainty. But if past history is any indicator…
The incredible grind of the Israel-Palestine war.
Astoundingly escalating. Quoting a Hamas foot-soldier I had the displeasure of meeting in New York, early ‘80s: “As long as there is one Hamas alive, Jews and Israel will never have a peaceful night’s sleep.” How right he was.
Can Trump really force Iran to hand over all nuclear assets required to build a weapon? Without making Iran wealthy again? Trump is not much for fostering regime changes. Still and perhaps, Trump can get there anyway as to Iran.
Then there are the largely forgotten or ignored or thought not that relevant “other” wars raging around the world. Some notables: Sudan, Syria, Myanmar, Congo (DRC), Yemen, Sahel Region (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger). Estimates are that those “out of sight and mind” conflicts have displaced some 42 million people and caused famine for 112 million. Estimates. Right: why bother getting real numbers?
And then the other thirty-plus active combat areas in the world…
Interjecting here a strong suggestion. Watch or listen to a global broadcast sit down I did last week with Michael Tobin OBE. He is a multi-billionaire technology entrepreneur and thought leader from the UK. Also a cool guy. Certainly the recently deceased queen thought a lot of him to give him the Order of the British Empire. The discussion was on global trade wars, tariffs, the death of free speech (in the UK and the US), immigration and cultural diversity (the good, the bad and the ugly), technological frontier (the rise, opportunities, challenges and ethical considerations of the mighty AI) and more. You can find it on YouTube: https://bit.ly/4jyp0uL and elsewhere…
Focusing on what we Americans used to hold to be the cornerstone of our democracy, free speech is even “more dead” in the UK than just last week. Shockingly reminiscent of “freedom of speech” I witnessed when we lived in fear behind the Iron Curtain, before the fall of Communism. In the UK in 2025?
I fear that in the US, free speech has become merely a convenient and ordinary—read that as dumbed-down, thoughtless and mindless—battle ground of the shrieking fringes and intellectually bankrupt talking heads.
Clearly teaching math and “thinking” are not particularly prioritized in most of the world. Who are the brilliant minds who thought they could successfully engage in a trade war with the US? It is perversely funny that the White House, the Departments of Commerce and Treasury, and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative are having a logistical challenge scheduling negotiations with some 75-100 countries who have asked to do so.
And, we do not even have to travel to meet with them. They are coming to DC hat-in-hand.
Your humble scribe is anxiously waiting for a US—India and US—Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore—trade deals. How will effectively cornered China react? Will the CCP make a disingenuous deal with the US (make it and break it right away) or attack Taiwan?
India? If tensions between nuclear insane Pakistan and India escalate beyond “normal,” that will be the game changer. China is ever-present in fomenting that powder keg. The most dangerous place on earth…
Technological advances continue to gallop way ahead of thoughtful management of social, political, legal, and intellectual constructs to put all that to positive use. Even altruistically. I encourage you to read, watch, listen to our many talks, interviews and podcasts on Technology and Digital Transformation. So much there, right through singularity, hierarchy of people and machines… The future is indeed here.
I would be remis to not share the most perversely funny interview in regard to technology. Uber-wunderkind, supercilious to the max Mark Zuckerberg on a podcast with Dwarkesh Patel. The same Zuckerberg who told us we need more friends. Thousands of them.
Now, not so much. As AI relationships become more sophisticated and highly personalized, although may not be particularly mind-healthy, and not without mind-numbing ethical concerns, you can easily go from the average well-functioning person who has three friends, to however many darned-near perfect friends you want. “Friends” who know more about you that you know about yourself.
As to “mind-healthy,” a term I hope to coin, that leaves “body-healthy.” Yes. Your laptop gives off sufficient heat. Yes. With that in hand or really nearby, you are mere clicks away from all sorts of feel-good knowledge. Even sleep-inducing apps. So. cuddle up with your laptop on a cold night for ultimate comfort and intimate interplay.
And without any complaints about anything. After all, “it” knows what you think, how you feel and what you “really” want.
Wish you and yours a fun and productive week.